Here we go again. Should we vacation on the Outer Banks? Is New Orleans going to be OK? Is Florida prepared for the worst? Here's what the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)thinks:
2008 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook Summary
The Climate Prediction Center�s 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook calls a 90% probability of a near-normal or above-normal hurricane season. An above-normal season is most likely (65% chance), but there is also a 25% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season. See NOAA�s definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons.
This outlook is based on the analysis and prediction of two main climate signals:
1) The ongoing conditions that have been conducive to above-normal Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995 (called the multi-decadal signal), which includes above-normal sea-surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
Even though the last two Atlantic hurricane seasons have been near-normal, there remains no indication the current active hurricane era has ended.
2) Possible lingering effects from La Ni�a or ENSO-neutral conditions.
Currently, La Ni�a seems to be waning, but its atmospheric impacts often persist even after Pacific Ocean temperatures have returned to normal. There is considerable uncertainty among the forecast models as to how strong the La Ni�a influence will be.
Climate patterns similar to those expected this year have historically produced a wide range of activity, and have been associated with both near-normal and above-normal seasons. Allowing for uncertainties, we estimate a 60%-70% chance of occurrence for each of the following ranges of activity:
12-16 named storms,
6-9 Hurricanes,
2-5 Major Hurricanes,
An ACE range 100%-210% of the median
These likely ranges have been observed in about two-thirds of past seasons having similar climate conditions to those expected this year. They do not represent the total ranges of activity seen in those past seasons.
Most of the 2008 activity is expected to take place during August through October (ASO), the peak months of the Atlantic hurricane season.
The Climate Prediction Center will issue an update to this outlook in early August, at the start of the peak months of the Atlantic hurricane season.
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